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Tom's avatar

To me, the question is "Are certain advancements inevitable once preconditions are met?" If Einstein had been hit by a truck at age 3, would we now have a theory of relativity from someone else? My gut instincts is that the answer is yes. But short of experiments bumping off geniuses and waiting, it's going to have to remain in the realm of thought experiments :-)

More to the point, I see the Myth of the Lone Genius as push back against the human brain's tendency to over-value the remarkable and conflate exceptional competence in one area with competence in all.

Like most noble lies, it's designed to make us look at things a little more rationally than our brains would prefer. It's also not terribly likely to succeed. The brain gets what the brain wants.

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Roger’s Bacon's avatar

Great points - you are talking about the "Halo Effect" I believe. I would certainly agree with you that we would have figured relativity without Einstein, but you have to wonder how long it would have taken - 10, 20, or 30 years? There is added value in getting discoveries sooner (e.g. something with medical implications). I also wonder about the contingency/path-dependence of science - if it had been discovered at another time by another person would science (and history) have followed the same path?

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Isaac Ramonet's avatar

Not so sure about the electrical motor, electrical induction, etc. would have happened especially around anything requiring invention. And as Roger points out there is a huge value in bringing invention and discovery forward. The foundation of computers in Lull's Ars Magna circa 1315, which inspired (not sure it's the right word tho) Leibniz to invent (or discover) binary in 1701 is a great example of the cost of this delay. And an example of the not so easy substitution in someone else getting to it.

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Roger’s Bacon's avatar

This is a great example and I may steal it in the future!

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